The military teaches officers a technique for completing the appreciation process in order to develop a sound, workable plan.  You are instructed to take a fact or a deduction and work it through by constantly asking the question, “So what….?”.  You ask this until there is nowhere else left to go.  

For example, we are assaulting a dominating hill that we need to occupy.  We discover the enemy has tanks, and we do not.  So what?  So, they’ll be damaging if they are allowed to interdict our assault.  So what?  So, we need to limit their ability to do this.  So what?  So, we need to position our anti-tank weaponry on their most likely route, or, attack from a direction where the tanks can’t be used?  So what?  So, this limits our attacking options.  This continues until the deduction informs the decision-making and strengthens the overall plan.  Not working this through will cause a flawed plan to be produced.

How many businesses equip themselves with plans developed by looking at ‘what if’ scenarios?  My experience is that very few do this.  Business leaders tend to wait until an event occurs, then rapidly work through ways to deal with this.  This causes decision-making under stress and leads to poorer, sometimes ill-considered results.  

While working with an AFL team, we had the opportunity to gather a team of key personnel together to develop ‘What if’ scenarios into plans of action.  These can be for positive and negative situations.  For example, what if a player has an accident on the way to the ground for a match?  What actions need to be taken, and who carries them out?  On the other side, what if the team wins a significant number of games in succession?  What message goes through the media, who delivers it, how is standardised, how do we keep the players focused on their job and not get involved in the hype?  Once these and several other plans were developed, they were rehearsed so everyone involved understood their role, and, almost more importantly, those not involved understood why and were aware of what was happening.  The best way to eliminate rumours is to ensure everyone knows the truth!

One of the advantages in a military plan is the addition of DPs (Decision Points).  These are the times when a decision must be made.  ‘If the enemy reach bridge 123 then…’.  The same applies in a business setting.  Let’s take the example of a farm that I am working with.  They are in danger of losing good staff when mining starts to pick-up.  In order to secure staff and try to side-step a void on the farm, there is a DP when action needs to be taken.  As soon as major projects are announced, it is the key.  Not, when staff start handing in resignations.  Positive action may assist in keeping a workable group who place lifestyle and culture over money.  Allocating the right DPs and taking action then and there are vital to being proactive.

The process of developing plans that include decision points and follow-through on ‘what if’ scenarios, is quite simple.  It’s the thinking power that creates an additional positive.  Having thought through scenarios, you are readily able to deal with situations calmly and well ahead of the pack.  With football, we took this one step further and ‘war gamed’ solutions.  Prior to each game, the opposition analysts and the coaching panel would occupy a room and whiteboard possible situations and the responses.  As an example, the opposition team would swing their ruckman into the forward line to go tall.  The coaches would work out a response to this and the opposition countered.  This was continued until they were comfortable with a response.  What this did was to prevent stressed decision-making and spur-of-the-moment reaction.  This was developed from the OODA Loop arising from the Korean War.  OODA meaning Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.  If you can get ‘inside’ your opponent’s OODA Loop you continue to put them on the back foot, and inevitably win the battle.

This can follow-through into business where the opposition is simply your competitors.  If you’re making proactive moves that have your competitor scurrying to catch-up, you have the advantage and can press this home.  Take Coles with their ‘minis’ versus Woolworths, who were in catch-up mode with their ‘ooshies’.  The first to market has a huge advantage and may even cause the competitor to spend more on advertising to try to catch-up.

It’s really about being prepared and thinking through issues that may arise so the brain has already been there and can shift gears easily.  Try it, you may like it!

Related reading:

Is your vision a waste of time?

Why ‘handover culture’ doesn’t exist in Australia – and why it should